Heavy rains recently hit southern Africa and caused serious damage. Floods swept through Mozambique, Eswatini, northeastern South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Around 200 people lost their lives, and thousands were left without homes or food. Since many families in these regions depend on farming, repeated floods make life even harder for them.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group looked closely at these floods. They found that the 10 days of heavy rain were about 40% stronger because of global warming. If humans had not warmed the planet, now about 1.3°C hotter than before industrial times, this kind of rainfall would have been very rare, maybe happening once every 50 years or more. La Niña weather conditions made the rain even heavier, adding another 22% intensity.
One big problem is that today’s climate models don’t work well for Africa. Most of the models used around the world are built outside the continent. They often miss local details, like how warming affects tropical weather or how La Niña increases rainfall in southern Africa. Some very local risks are also ignored—for example, in parts of Mozambique, high tides can stop floodwater from flowing back into the sea.
Climate scientist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London explains the issue clearly. She says the climate models we currently use are all developed outside Africa, and no single model can perfectly explain climate changes everywhere. This is why Africa needs its own regional climate models, to better understand how global warming affects its weather systems.
Izidine Pinto, a senior researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, adds that Africa-made models would greatly improve daily weather forecasts. Better forecasts mean stronger early warning systems. People could move to safer places or protect their crops before floods arrive. For this to happen, governments need to invest in local climate science.
Experts on the ground, like Bernardino Nantumbo from Mozambique’s National Institute of Meteorology, also stress how important it is to understand local risks that outsiders might overlook.
Why this matters for sustainability?
Africa contributes very little to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it faces some of the worst climate impacts. Floods and droughts destroy farms, reduce food supplies, and keep rural families trapped in poverty. Accurate, Africa-built climate models can support sustainability by:
- Helping farmers choose the right time to plant and prepare for extreme weather
- Improving early warning systems to save lives and reduce damage
- Clearly linking extreme events to climate change, strengthening the case for climate justice and adaptation funding
- Building scientific skills within African institutions, reducing long-term dependence on outside support
All of this supports bigger goals like resilient agriculture, food security, and disaster-ready communities. Creating these models takes money, effort, and long-term commitment. African governments and international partners must invest in weather stations, training scientists, and research infrastructure. But the benefits are huge—fewer losses, stronger economies, and healthier ecosystems.
The message from scientists is clear: Africa cannot keep relying on climate models made for other parts of the world. Local climate science is essential for accurate forecasts, early warnings, and proving how climate change is driving disasters. Investing in this now protects lives today and builds a stronger, more sustainable future for the continent. This approach puts local knowledge first, empowers communities, and turns climate challenges into opportunities for lasting progress.
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